Oscars

Best SCREENPLAY

The predictions for both categories:

Original Screenplay

• Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine...)
• John Logan (The Aviator)
• Bill Condon (Kinsey)
• Zach Braff (Garden State)
• James L. White (Ray)

  ---

• Hotel Rwanda
• Brad Bird (The Incredibles)
• Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

Adapted Screenplay

• Sideways
• Million Dollar Baby
• Motorcycle Diaries
• Door in the Floor
• Finding Neverland

  ---

• Before Sunset

The Original Screenplay category proved to be the biggest spoiler for my predictions. Truth be told, Brad Bird's nomination for The Incredibles was quite expected, but I really didn't have much of a feel for this category so I prefered to stick with my very first predictions. Mike Leigh receive his surprise 2nd nomination of the evening for a total of 5 in his career.

The Adapted Screenplay section was much smoother. I am glad Motorcycle Diaries was recognized, while the reason I stayed away from Before Sunset was that it's pretty much a screenplay adapted after... itself, the original material being some story written by the same Linklater. However, a good set of nominees.

These categories are never easy to predict.

Original Screenplay

In this category Kaufman and Logan are the only sure picks. Condon has BFCA and WGA nomination to support his candidacy. Braff also has a WGA nomination and is my personal wildcard choice. For the last spot we have White (Ray), Brad Bird (The Incredibles) or Keir Pearson & Terri George for Hotel Rwanda which also have a WGA nomination.

Longshots Vera Drake, Bad Education (Almodovar), The Sea Inside, Kill Bill (Tarantino) or even I Heart Huckabees.

Adapted Screenplay

Sideways is the clear frontrunner winning virtually every precursor award. Million Dollar Baby and Finding Neverland have both strong chances. Motorcycle Diaries, Door in the Floor, Closer and Before Sunset seem to be the movies from which the final 2 nominations will be selected.

Other possibilities: Mean Girls (WGA nom), The Notebook and Being Julia.